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Aperture & Focus 2025: Week 46
Global Aperture
After nearly two years of disruption, Houthi leadership has announced a ceasefire to their targeted attacks in the Suez Canal, signaling a return to normal Red Sea shipping. The decision ends months of attacks on vessels that had forced carriers to reroute around Africa. Mediated by Oman, the move follows heavy losses among Houthi leaders and is expected to stabilize trade flows through the Suez Canal.
The U.S. Trade Representative has suspended newly imposed port fees on China-linked vessels for one year starting November 10, easing tensions but dividing the maritime industry. Supporters say the pause provides stability for U.S. shipyards and logistics providers to plan investments, while labor unions and analysts warn it delays efforts to counter China’s dominance in global shipbuilding. The decision follows a brief period of reciprocal fees that disrupted trade flows and reignited debate over U.S. maritime competitiveness.
Regional Focus
Americas
United States: Following last week’s mandated flight reductions due to the ongoing 2025 U. S. federal government shutdown, disruptions have intensified as cancellations at major U.S. airports climbed to 6% on November 11, with over 1,200 flights canceled and more than 2,000 delayed. Although the Senate passed a bill to end the shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration warns that capacity cuts may still rise to 10% by Friday, tightening domestic air cargo options during peak season. Even if the government reopens this week, officials say flight schedules could take considerably longer to stabilize, extending pressure on already strained supply chains.
U.S. container imports are projected to slow to their lowest levels since early 2023 as retailers complete holiday stockpiling amid tariff uncertainty. According to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker, November and December volumes are expected to fall 14% and 18% year-over-year, respectively, reflecting the effects of frontloaded shipments and shifting trade policies. The slowdown follows a volatile year of tariff adjustments—including a reduction of the “fentanyl” tariff on China to 10%—and signals weaker import demand heading into early 2026.
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have approved a binding agreement with the South Coast Air Quality Management District to achieve zero-emission maritime operations by 2029. The plan, approved November 7, establishes phased infrastructure deadlines and replaces the voluntary Clean Air Action Plan that has guided emissions cuts since 2005. With strict enforcement provisions and collaboration from both ports, the accord targets pollution from vessels, trucks, and cargo equipment while balancing environmental and economic goals for the nation’s busiest port complex.
Mexico: The nearshoring boom driven by U.S. and Canadian manufacturers has slowed amid renewed U.S. tariff pressures and domestic logistics bottlenecks. A study by global management consulting firm Kearney and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) found that foreign direct investment growth fell from 50% in 2022 to just 9% in 2025, as uncertainty over new trade measures and infrastructure constraints deter new projects. With congestion at ports, crime on key trucking routes, and potential 25% tariffs on vehicles and parts, analysts say nearshoring in Mexico has effectively “hit the pause button.”
Asia-Pacific
Philippines: Recovery efforts are underway after Super Typhoon Fung-Wong struck Luzon on November 9, damaging roads, ports, and power infrastructure and halting transport operations nationwide. More than 325 domestic and 61 international flights were canceled, and over 6,600 cargo workers and passengers were stranded as the Coast Guard suspended maritime traffic during the storm. Although travel restrictions have been lifted, cleanup and repair operations continue, with logistics disruptions expected to persist in northern and central Luzon in the coming days.
Taiwan: Two days after sweeping across the Philippines, Typhoon Fung-Wong made landfall in Taiwan, leading the government to suspend work across central and southern Taiwan amid mass evacuations on November 12, resulting in the temporary closure of KWE offices in Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung. While northern offices remained open and airports and seaports in Taipei and Keelung continue to operate, most flights at Kaohsiung Airport are canceled and cargo operations there are experiencing delays. Logistics disruptions are expected as storm impacts continue to affect port closures and transportation across the region.
China: Exports out of China fell 1.1% in October — the first decline in eight months — driven by a more than 25% drop in shipments to the United States and a sharp contraction in both air and ocean volumes. Port activity also slowed, with Shanghai handling its fewest containers since April, suggesting China may finally be experiencing the effects of cooling global demand and shifting sourcing patterns. With tariff reductions from the recent U.S.–China agreement taking effect next week, analysts expect only limited relief heading into year-end.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
The European Commission has adopted a major transport package aimed at strengthening the region’s long-term competitiveness by expanding high-speed rail and accelerating investment in renewable and low-carbon fuels for aviation and maritime sectors. The plan outlines actions to eliminate rail bottlenecks, improve cross-border connectivity, and support industry adoption of cleaner technologies, while the new Sustainable Transport Investment Plan mobilizes billions in funding to scale up sustainable fuel production through 2027. Together, these initiatives are intended to improve network efficiency, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and support more resilient transport corridors across the EU.
European air cargo carriers are facing growing pressure as geopolitical tensions, energy costs, and shifting trade flows stretch capacity and disrupt traditional routings. Airlines have reported rising demand from Asia—especially India—while also navigating diversions around closed airspace and Red Sea disruptions that complicate schedules and transit times. To stay resilient, carriers are leaning on digitalization, next-generation fleets, and stronger transshipment links between Europe, Asia, and the United States to maintain reliability for shippers amid an increasingly unpredictable market.
Saudi Arabia: Airports throughout Saudi Arabia handled 866,000 tons of air cargo between January and September 2025, reflecting strong regional growth at a time when many global markets are slowing. While global airfreight demand has risen only modestly, Saudi Arabia’s expanding transshipment activity and new logistics investments show it outpacing broader industry trends. Supported by Saudia Cargo partnerships and fast-growing Special Economic Zones like the Riyadh Integrated Logistics Zone, the Kingdom is strengthening its position as a key gateway between East and West.